“The lines just got very clear in the race to replace Tom Ammiano in the state Assembly. Sup. David Chiu has entered the race with the support of Sup. Scott Wiener -- making it clear that Chiu will run not as a progressive but as a centrist willing to cut deals with the conservative wing of the board.
'That leaves Sup. David Campos as the sole political heir to Ammiano, who has in both his local and his state career been a solid, unwavering voice of the left in one of the most progressive districts in California.
'Chiu confirmed to me that he's running, and will probably use the same type of line he used in the mayor's race, talking about "our shared progressive values." But Wiener doesn't share what most of us call "progressive values." He's a talented and straightforward legislator, and my disagreements with him are not personal -- but on economic issues, he's really pretty conservative.”
“The race to succeed Tom Ammiano in this San Francisco district is expected to feature two bright, rising politicians representing two strong demographics in the district--gay and Chinese voters.
The two are Harvard law graduates born five months apart, although their personal stories are very different. David Chiu was born in Cleveland to Taiwanese immigrants and raised in Boston, while David Campos was born in Guatemala before immigrating illegally to Los Angeles at age 14.
On the Board of Supervisors, Campos is seen as further to the left than Chiu, although either would be among the most liberal in the Legislature.
Campos starts with a bit of an advantage as gay and Latino voters outnumber Asian voters in this district, which includes the Castro and Chinatown, but falls short of the number of Chinese voters found in Phil Ting's AD19.”
"No one wants to talk about it publicly, but there's an interesting face-off on the horizon in statewide Democratic politics: Asian vs. Latino.
Just take a look at the possible lineup in next year's primaries:
Controller: Betty Yee of the State Board of Equalization vs. Assembly Speaker John Pérezof Los Angeles. And here in San Francisco, we have a possible matchup between Supervisors David Campos and David Chiu for the Assembly seat being vacated by the termed-out Tom Ammiano.
So 2014 could be quite an interesting year for the state's new supermajority."
(Frankly, outside the ideological dimension, this seems to me more of an Asian v. Latino race than an Asian v. Gay one. Scott Wiener is supporting Chiu. And even though the ideological differences are discrete, they matter in San Francisco.)
But which dimensions are most worrying to our local cabal of Lobbyists, Activists, Nabobs, Gadflies and Functionaries?
1. The fact that whoever wins, the Mayor gets to appoint a replacement seat on the Board of Supes, and shift the policy direction of that vote. Chiu may be more of a centrist than Campos, but he was independent one. Moreover, any Mayoral appointee in D3 is in effect an underdog in the face of its NIMBY establishment base, led by the Telegraph Hill Dwellers (with Aaron Peskin somewhere in that morass) and other like-minded groups. Meanwhile, the activist establishment in D9 is even more likely to clash with the Mayor, and any appointee faces even more flak in any effort to win election in their own right to keep that seat.
2. That if you're a citywide player, you now have to deal with the fact that if you bet on one horse, you still have to deal with the other one too, whichever one wins.