The Next Mayor

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Author	Comment
Able Dart	The Next Mayor	Lead	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 5417 (06/20/09 6:34 PM) Administrator Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Tags : None http://sfwall.blogspot.co...ut-first-cautionary.html Under the City Charter, the succession plan works like this: if the Mayor leaves before the due expiry of his office, then the President of the Board becomes Acting Mayor. But the Acting Mayor doesn't get to keep the job for any specified time; unless the vacancy occurs within 120 days of a regularly scheduled election, the Board of Supervisors gets to nominate and then appoint, by majority vote, a new mayor. And they can appoint anyone. The Wall Commentary on Public and Private Life in San Francisco http://www.sfwall.net
PHLemingo	Make way for taxes	#1	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 3988 (06/21/09 7:00 PM) Ward Healer Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	And of course there is no real 'opposition' to speak of (from the 'moderate' side of the fence). Sure, there is Mark Leno (former Mod), but he would be running against Mayor Peskin; and he'd be likely to be attacked as a carpet-bagger or flighty or aggrandizing of his personal position. There is Bevan Dufty, but its hard to see him fighting against a Peskin that feigns toward the center (while in full control of the DCCC). Michaela Alioto? She'd be running at a distinct disadvantage, but it could be done.. Lets face it tough, an incumbent mayor is gonna be heck to beat. -P
Chrysippus	Board Prez	#2	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 4534 (06/21/09 7:30 PM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Once a board prez becomes acting mayor, it will be unlikely for the board to choose another person as mayor. The acting mayor will do everything in his or her power to act and look mayoral, manipulate the media to that end, etc. This behavior would certainly be true of David Chiu who is a scheming climber, very media savvy, and totally ambitious. He would quickly stomp on any potential head that would rise to supplant him. Am I Mayor Yet?
Uncle Miltie		#3	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 634 (06/21/09 9:00 PM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Your counterfactual speculation assumes that Newsom wins the Governorship of California, or drops out of politics to be a Mr. Mom.
fogu2		#4	[-]
Posts: 2033 (06/22/09 7:06 AM) Limit 1/1 Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Don't be fooled, Newsom has a decent shot. Tom Campbell and Meg Whitman have better chances than Brown IMO. Brown, while respected in some circles, has too much negative history and little connection with average voters under 40. Mayor of Oakland and AG just does not have the star power. And when Newsom, who speaks well in public, and Brown stand side by side Jerry will just seem like a strange, sad, fat little old man with a mid-life crisis trying to recapture his youth. If Newsom succeeds Chiu will not be mayor. Too inexperienced, too many on the BOS will feel he "cut in line" and will not vote for his ascension, too many under-the-radar power players will pull strings to not allow it. Peskin is actually a possibility in that case so Able's commentary is insightful. If he's selected I would hope and expect that he would rise to the occasion. He's a power player by nature but as mayor I suspect he will have a citywide view that will be different than the parochial view he had as a district Supervisor. Last Edited By: fogu2 06/22/09 7:08 AM. Edited 1 times.
Chrysippus	Chiu	#5	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 4534 (06/22/09 9:32 AM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	If Gavin Newsom becomes guv, David Chiu becomes Mayor until, or if, the board decides otherwise. Once in the office, he will fight to stay there. Don't underestimate the ruthlessness and ambition of Chiu. Look at his history. He's a political unknown who ended up becoming prez of the board. How did that happen? He outfoxed Ross Mirkarimi, an incumbent supe with a lot of clout. He played off the various factions in the board's progressive sect, and then presented himself as the solution to their conflicts. When he ran for supe, he courted every interest group in his district, and told each what they wanted to hear, regardless of any concerns for overall consistency. He was very savvy with media manipulation. This guy is smart and determined. After becoming prez of the board, he ensconced himself in that position. If he becomes mayor because of an absence by Newsom, and the board then chooses someone else, he will be back as the board's prez. Those who voted against him will have hell to pay. Aaron Peskin, on the other hand, is no longer a player. His position on the DCCC means nothing to the average voter. He has lost leverage with the media. He is no longer in any position to affect the agenda of the progressive sect. Chris Daly has supplanted him in that regard. Chiu, on the other hand, is at the center of power, knows how to use it, is ruthless, and is underestimated by almost everyone. David Chiu is Lady Macbeth in drag. Don't fuck with her. Lady Macbeth, Pacing and Scheming
fogu2		#6	[-]
Posts: 2033 (06/22/09 10:11 AM) Limit 1/1 Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Aaron Peskin, on the other hand, is no longer a player. His position on the DCCC means nothing to the average voter. That is not the issue in this scenario. It is an inside job. A politician (Chiu) selects a politician to be mayor and that person is approved by elected politicians (BOS). If Newsom becomes Governor, the voting public will have little to no say in who is the next Mayor. The public will be largely irrelevant, it will be a backroom deal involving pols and special interests. And whoever is selcted and approved will have the advantage of incumbency in the next election. Leno, Dufty and every other candidate will be at a severe disadvantage. Last Edited By: fogu2 06/22/09 10:25 AM. Edited 1 times.
Chrysippus	The Scenario	#7	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 4534 (06/22/09 1:02 PM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	If the Gav becomes Guv, the board prez automatically becomes mayor until the board votes on a permanent successor. There will be a hearing and a time for public comment before the board votes on the permanent successor. David Chiu is an ambitious and determined political schemer. He will pack the chamber with Asian-American voters. They will say that SF was built with their labor, they have been too long ignored in local politics, their time has come, and David Chiu is their champion. Then the board will vote. They will succumb to the chamber-packers, as they always do.
fogu2		#8	[-]
Posts: 2033 (06/22/09 1:45 PM) Limit 1/1 Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Other than when Moscone was assasinated can you name another mayor in modern times that vacated the office and left the selection to the BOS? I don't think there ever was one. Chrys, your mayoral scenario is far more unlikely than Newsom becoming Governor. David Chiu has almost no visibility to the general populace. My guess is that if asked, almost no one outside his district could even name David Chiu as a Board member no less the POBOS. The power brokers in the north and west part of town, the downtown interests and many of the unions will not be railroaded into a Mayor Chiu. Not gonna happen. But, if Newsom does leave and the city discovers how the next mayor is selected it could well be the beginning of the end for district elections. To think that a novice politician, who was elected with only a few thousand district votes, who hardly anyone even knows, could be appointed mayor will wake people up to the ridiculousness of district elections.
Chrysippus	PR	#9	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 4534 (06/22/09 2:39 PM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	"David Chiu has almost no visibility to the general populace." - FogU2 True. But he knows how to work the media. Look at the way he conducted his supe campaign. If Newsom vacates Room 200, Chiu automatically becomes mayor until the board votes otherwise, which will take a while because of the hearings required and because of the general dysfunctionality of the board. As soon as Chiu steps into Room 200, the media will immediately descend on him. He will rise to occasion. There will be interviews, photo ops, and opinion pieces. He will get instant state-wide and even national coverage. His pic will be plastered everywhere. His propaganda machine will ramp up into full force. He will avail himself of the PR apparatus that now exists in Room 200, which is imposing. He will mobilize the Asian constituencies and some of the progressives. San Francisco's First Chinese-American Mayor! will be the phrase on everyone's lips. This is a momentum that the board will not be able to reverse. They won't know what hit them. The Supes Think About Maybe, Possibly, Perhaps, Stopping A Newly Elevated Mayor
Able Dart		#10	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 5417 (06/22/09 10:35 PM) Administrator Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	I suspect David Chiu will put brains before ambition should this gambit come to play. Keep in mind that he may not be Board President by then either. One wild card, considering her mental state, is Migden. I suspect people are looking at electing HER as Board President should she be elected D10 Supervisor, out of deference to her career, and as a "consolation prize." But what if she fails to see it that way? The Wall Commentary on Public and Private Life in San Francisco http://www.sfwall.net
RebelWithoutACause	Newsom will not be governor...	#11	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 946 (06/23/09 6:53 AM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Newsom will not be governor. No amount of spins from his lackeys and his pr machine will make him governor. He will go back in the anals of obscurity as the politician who f(*d over everyone who helped him...the guy who cannot be trusted. People do not forget.
Uncle Miltie		#12	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 634 (06/23/09 6:54 AM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	amen
Able Dart		#13	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 5417 (06/23/09 7:26 AM) Administrator Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Most likely. However, on the same note, Newsom may leave office early for other reasons. He may simply decide to pick up his ball and go home once he loses the primary. Given Dem insiders' hatred of Brown, Newsom may well get the party endorsement and still lose in November, leaving a Brown/Campbell runnoff in his wake. The Wall Commentary on Public and Private Life in San Francisco http://www.sfwall.net
RandySF		#14	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 1485 (06/23/09 8:00 AM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Chrys, given the campaigns his opponents were running, he did not have to do that much (sorry, Able). Based on what I saw, he ran a basic, organized campaign and he was not that visible until the very end when it counted most. I'm also reserving judgnent because he has only been in office for seven months. And let's face it, he is here for the city while Gavin isn't.
Chrysippus	Call of the Politicians	#15	[-]
Ward Heeler Posts: 4534 (06/23/09 10:17 AM) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	"One wild card, considering her mental state, is Migden." (- Able) Yep, Migden is probably devoting every waking minute to scheming about how she can return to the center of attention in SF politics. Running for the board and hoping to become board prez, again, could well be on her agenda. Rafael Mandelman will be waiting to hail her as "the progressive alternative in this race." Yes, friends, this is what the Milk Clubbers have done to the legacy of Harvey Milk. * * * * * * "Newsom may leave office early for other reasons." (-Able) Right, he got bored early in his first term and went into a daze, letting all the city agencies drift. The only thing that got him back in the grove was when he revved up to run for governor. He doesn't want to be bothered with the annoyance of running city government. He wants to be out in front of the cameras, posing. So after he loses his quest to become governor, he may go off into the sunset. Or else, he many lose all interest in the responsibilities of being mayor, although keeping the title for himself, for the sake of vanity. * * * * * * "I'm also reserving judgment because he [David Chiu] has only been in office for seven months." (- Randy) David Chiu took out Ross Mirkarimi, who was hungry for the job of board prez. Mirkarimi is smart, ambitious, and relentless. It took some doing on Chiu's part to outfox Mirkarimi. Chiu did so by playing up divisions within the progressive sect and then positioning himself as the only person who could heal them. Chiu got the other members of the sect (Chris Daly, David Campos, John Avalos, and Eric Mar) to play into his hand. He pulled off a coup that nobody expected. This guy is even more smart, driven, and ambitious than Mirkarimi. Operators who are this obsessed with power rise in politics. That's why the world is in such a big mess.

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